The odds for each NBA game are already available on several bookmakers, such as Bet365 or 1XBet. Now we just have to think about what situations we should bet on this return of the biggest basketball competition in the world.
CAREFUL WITH THE “PRE-SEASON” GAMES
This Wednesday, July 22nd, the pre-season games kick off, those preparation games so that the teams can have a minimum playing rhythm before their debuts.
In total, we will have more than 30 pre-season games, and these matches will have a reduced duration. We will not see 4 periods of 12 minutes each but instead we will have 4 quarters of 10 minutes each. Each franchise will play 3 exhibition games, and that’s where things get dangerous for bettors.
On this kind of games, the teams rotate their rosters a lot, and players that usually don’t play that many minutes end up playing the same as their main ones, and the game becomes very random, especially on the final moments.
I don’t mean to say that the teams won’t care about the outcome, but these matches are only for the coaches to see the condition of each athlete on the roster. A lot of players are coming off a long period with very little activity and this first moment of real play ends up being heavy for their body.
A lot of athletes will be rested, that’s also a trademark of these games. Then, for those who will still insist in betting on these preparation games, here are some tips:
- Don’t trust the “pre-pandemic” favourites. The conditions and the roster rotation can take away the favouritism of any team.
- Don’t bet on high lines. None of these matches is worth investing on very high points’ lines, much less on the handicap ones.
- Remember: Everyone that is on Disney is still fighting at least for a playoff spot, which means there are no games against uninterested teams. Every team is still at a preparation rhythm.
- If possible, reduce your betting volume as much as possible during this period. This is just an observation for the hottest stage of the competition.
- If you are going to bet, try to bet in-play. Betting before the game is too random and the conditions of the game live might be more consistent.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEAMS WHO ARE FIGHTING FOR THE LAST PLAYOFF SPOTS
The games of the teams who are fighting for the last spots should be the most attractive ones, especially due to the odds. A lot of teams have already ensured qualification, inclusively advancing on the top spots of their conferences.
Since everything will happen in Orlando, the games to decide home-court advantage will sometimes be less intense, since there will be no fans in the arenas.
Then, the games who feature those teams who are still fighting for the last spots, especially on the Western side, will have a lot of value lines.
The teams who are generally heavy favourites and come in with very high handicap lines will have very few preparation matches and we might also see a high rotation from the bench.
Especially because their conditions are already defined. Then, we should look at these stretched handicap lines as great betting options.
CAREFUL WITH THE INDIVIDUAL LINES
Another question that will be recurring is opting for the individual lines of some players. During this different period of the NBA, a lot of tests will be made every week, both COVID and physical ones.
A lot of times, great players will be rested, and with that, others will gain more time on the court or a bigger responsibility on the team’s actions.
If an Anthony Davis (Lakers) who generally struggles with his shoulder is rested, the lines for LeBron James gain value. Just like in the Rockets, if Harden or Westbrook are rested, the one who stays will be getting the ball way more than usual.
That will be consistent on this return. It was a long stoppage and the teams will have to rotate their rosters. The individual lines will become very commonly utilized by bettors. Therefore, keep an eye on the news!
USE IN-PLAY LINES!
A lot of bettors prefer to bet only before the game. Everyone has its reasons, but this will be an unprecedented moment in the NBA’s history. The in-play lines should gain a lot of value, especially due to the teams’ lack of rhythm.
Keeping an eye out for the opportunities the games will offer, since a team that is very ahead will utilize players with less playing time. Teams with better physical preparation and even teams with better momentum during the games.
A lot of teams will oscillate a lot during the games, since they will be very fatigued, and a lot of them will not need the result anymore.
That’s when the attentive bettor has to strike, since he will be looking for value during the game.
The NBA will kick off in just a couple of days and that will be the moment to keep an eye out on the opportunities that generally we don’t see during the regular season.