The United States presidential elections has a date to happen – Trump vs Biden. On November 3rd the North-Americans will choose their new president, and the odds are available at the bookmakers. Check below a summary of markets, odds, and how are the previews over there. Check it out!
ELECTIONS IN THE USA: HOW IT WORKS
Each location on this planet has its own particularities on its local elections. It is no different with the United States, which has a somewhat complex electoral process.
First of all, we must understand that in the United States, each state has a great autonomy in relation to its own laws and constitution. Therefore, that electoral process changes from place to place.
Another important point is that in the United States, voting is not mandatory, and so the first stage of the elections is about each candidate convincing the people to vote, and from there, seek votes from this slice. In 2016, less than 60% of the population able to vote was present at the elections.
Trying to explain everything is perhaps too complicated to understand. In short, at first, the primaries take place, which are the choices of the representatives of each party, who will run for president.
Each state has a peculiarity. In some, everyone is able to vote, and in others, only party members can have that right.
They don’t vote for the candidate, but for the delegate who will commit to one of the possible elected members. Whoever has more delegates becomes the representative of the party.
The elections are also indirect, that is, the delegates of each electoral college are defined to support a candidate.
The number of delegates is defined by the population (number of senators + number of deputies), and the presidential candidate must have the support of at least 270 delegates, setting as absolute majority, in a scenario of 538 delegates today.
However, the number of delegates is not proportional to the number of general votes. It is possible for a candidate to be elected without winning the majority of the votes. This is because in a state, the candidate who has the most votes takes the number of votes of all the delegates.
In a 29 delegate scenario, there is no chance of a 19 to 10 for party A or B, but the one who wins the majority takes the 29 votes. Add all the states together, and whoever gets the most votes wins.
TRUMP VS BIDEN: WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
The Republican party has as representative the current president of the United States of America: Donald Trump.
A president who is divided between those who love him and those who hate him. Trump seems to have the current pandemic as a strong enemy, since the rejection to his government has risen considerably.
His rival in the fight for the presidency is the Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Biden has been in politics since the 1970s, and is known to have held the post of vice president during Barack Obama‘s administration. Biden leads some polls at the moment.
BETS: AVAILABLE MARKETS AND ELECTIONS PREVIEWS IN THE USA
Betting on the US elections can mean a good financial return, although it presents a certain risk. For instance, in the last election, Hillary Clinton, led the polls against Trump, gathered 3 million more votes than her rival, and ended up losing the elections.
This is due to the fact that general votes do not count directly, but the number of electoral colleges won do. Those who possess the highest number of delegates are the ones who can unbalance that scale. Remember: the winner takes it all, in each state.
It is also possible to bet on who will win the popular vote, that is, the one that will receive the highest number of general votes, just like Hillary did in 2016. In this scenario, Biden has a big advantage, paying 1.14, against 5.00 from Trump.
In this situation, Biden’s odd has fell abruptly, since Trump suffers from a strong rejection, following the pandemic, the massive increase in the number of unemployed, and how the president has led the situation in the country that has the highest number of deaths on the planet.
A more complex market is the one regarding the winner in each state. In this case, it is necessary to study the local scenario, who the population supports, the delegates, the historic in each election. There are dozens of options, and the difference from one place to another is absurd.
In the polls, Biden has been ahead of Trump, about 10 percentage points. This is an indication that he may win in the general vote, but not in the elections.
In the US, elections almost always elect the same party in most of the states, and so, some places are considered a “battleground”, something that would be like decisive states in the dispute.
In the decisive states, which decided the 2016 elections, Biden also appears with a win: in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these, Trump won by a tiny margin in 2016. Experts say that the states where Trump won by a good margin are the ones who may turn out to be Biden‘s differential.
States like Iowa, Ohio and Texas were decisive for Trump in the last elections, while Hillary had a big advantage. However, now the polls are suggesting a balance. If Biden wins in these states, he has a good chance of being the new president of the United States.
The debates are fundamental in each one’s campaign. In total, there will be 3 clashes between them, the first having already happened in the last week. A heated “dialogue”, trash talk and even offenses. Two more duels are awaited, and they may turn out to be the defining factor for the situation there.
There are still a lot of details so that someone can bet with confidence on one side or the other. This was a summary, to guide the ones who are interested in this kind of investment. I hope this will help to clarify a little the situation in the North-American country, and I suggest that the bettors look for very specific readings.