Top 10 times where it is better to avoid betting
Courses are sold. Bonuses are offered, promotions are made. Everything conspires towards you betting. But that shouldn’t always be the case. Therefore, we’ve gathered on this article 10 occasions where you should think twice before placing a bet.Remember that more important than winning a bet is not exposing yourself to a risk that is not worth it.
Odds with no value
Never place a bet if you don’t believe that the price you’re paying for it compensates the risk. Just like any other investment, sports betting needs to offer the expected return.
And the calculation of this return comes through the odds. The odds are the price paid associated to the risk of the sporting event in question.
If the odds don’t offer value, which means, they offer less than the risk you’ve calculated for that event, you should avoid making that bet.
Lack of confidence/feeling on the selection
Confidence is maybe the most deceitful concept in sports betting. It can lead you to make things you shouldn’t do or not making things that you should.
The fact is that the conviction we have on a certain bet is a result of several aspects.
Some of them we can’t even calculate. However, if the alarm sounds indicating that a bet shouldn’t be made, even if the reason isn’t that clear, the ideal is that you should stay away from that bet.
Markets without liquidity
Liquidity is how much money the bookmaker allows you to place on a certain line. In trading, bookmakers such as Betfair depend on how much money is on the market left to be matched.
On Punting, it depends on the limits imposed by the bookmakers. Therefore, when you place your stake you need to be aware of the limits imposed whatever the sport is.
Your betting strategy needs to be adjusted to the availability of the market. It is useless to attack a market where your calculated stake can’t be placed. On this case, the best option is to skip and stay away from the bet.
However arrogant and confident bettors might be on their analysis, we never know all the information and variables that surround a sporting event.
Injuries, information, weather, basically, there is a myriad of information that escape us sometimes.
Therefore, even if our analysis was built in a convincing way, when we look onto an unstable market like a Russian roulette it can generate a certain discomfort.
The idea that something might be wrong and escaped us is bothersome. And even the markets with the big players aren’t able to decide, causing a true ruckus.
On these cases, in case the market becomes a time bomb conspiring against our analysis, it might be a good time to stay away from betting.
Suspicions of match-fixing
I’m very skeptical regarding the information about match-fixing.
Generally, this kind of information is restricted to small groups and isn’t widespread through the internet.
Of course there are some scammers that offer this kind of “information” on social media, but those are generally criminals looking for pennies.
But it is also true that there are matches with absurd odds, such as the draw at 1.40 or the victory of a certain team completely crushed because of those rumours. Therefore, due to the safety margin, when this kind of thing happens and influences the odds, the ideal is to stay away.
Another case closer to a health issue than an analytical issue. It seems so obvious to think that if you’re not well you shouldn’t bet that we shouldn’t even be speaking about it.
But it is so recurrent this kind of behaviour that we decided to include that here.
The process of deciding to make a bet is a technical, analytical, cold issue, much closer to reason than emotion.
If there is any aspect of physical or emotional health that can prevent you from making a rational decision, you should stay away from betting.
Influence of third parties
We are not an island isolated from the world. With social media and the internet, it is almost impossible to have a point of view without it being slightly influenced by other people, opinions or press.
But in sports betting, you need to trust your method. The analytical method developed by yourself and that will guide you on the moment of making your bets. Your method will always point you on a direction.
When the influence of others puts your own conclusions in check to the point of messing with your own convictions, maybe it is better to stay away from betting.
If your own method didn’t allow you to reach a conclusion solid enough to resist conflicting information, you should avoid making that bet.
Rules of the bookmakers
Sometimes looking for the best odds, the best bonuses and the most attractive conditions, we put ourselves on a risky situation on several bookmakers that aren’t very respectable.
It is very important to guide ourselves by the reliability of the bookmakers right now. Some of them disrespect their customers, not fulfilling their payments and establishing the most aberrant rules.
On the case of those that make arbitrage, for example, the rules of the bookmakers gain an essential importance.
Your bets can get cancelled, voided, and all your strategy of profit can go down the drain due to the established rules. Therefore, depending on the rules, it is maybe necessary to stay away from a bet.
Lack of Information
Qualified information is crucial to make a bet, right? Therefore, lack of information should also be crucial for you not to make a bet, right?
Theoretically, yes. But we spent years seeing bettors taking chances senselessly in markets they are absolutely clueless on. Be it with the desire of spending time or trying to get profit quickly, people place bets in competitions and leagues of teams that they don’t even know the names.
This is one of the recipes for failure in the world of betting. Betting without the minimum of necessary information is an absurd mistake. Upon a situation like this, the ideal is staying away from the bet and looking for a scenario where you feel more comfortable.
Another question that is more pathological than analytical. Addiction is a disease and should be treated as such.
If your motivation for betting is already beyond the ludic or analytical question and it has become more of a serious problem, it is preferable that you completely stay away from this world and don’t place any more bets.
More than that, if it became a serious health problem for you, you should look for specialized medical assistance.
PREDICTION AND BETTING TIP