Today we will address the technical variable… I would say that if this is not the most important factor, it is amongst the most relevant of all factors in a pricing model – How to build a betting method.
TECHNICAL VARIABLE ANALYSIS IN FOOTBALL MATCHES
In this article I will bring you a step by step of how to analyze this variable so that you can make your own analysis, draw your conclusions about the squad of a team and create your power rankings.
WHAT TO ANALYZE IN A SQUAD
Well… I particularly analyze player by player of a team, from the starting players to the substitutes and then I make a general evaluation of the squad considering its power in terms of marking, creation and definition.
It is important here to watch the games or at least review the highlights of the matches in which you are specialized. By doing this we have a notion of how the players of a certain team are performing and therefore we avoid evaluating players who only come with a lot of media and little football…
Another detail (important to make an adjustment) is to observe the last games stats, and see if this team has been playing badly or has been playing well in each sector of the field.
For example… observe in recent matches dangerous attacks, more possession, few cards… it means that a certain team comes with its midfield, and attack in a good moment… a lot of cards, little possession, many fouls, many corners for the opponent… means that this team has been struggling a little defensively, and vice versa.
Another important factor in the technical evaluation of a squad are the key players. I define them as the outstanding players of a team, players above the average who really make the difference (It is extremely important to evaluate the championship level when looking at a match performance).
For example… São Paulo may have some key players playing for the Campeonato Paulista, it may have fewer above average players still playing in the Brazilian Championship… and no key players playing for the Copa Libertadores da América.
I recommend taking into consideration the behavior of these players, on and off the field… on the field observe how they are playing, if they are fulfilling everyone’s expectations (board/coach/ fans) or if they are going through a bad phase. There is no other way here, you have to reevaluate and make adjustments for the next matches.
Regarding the extra-field… here it also can be taken into account mainly for a today bet, key players with personal problems… the lack of concentration in the match will surely affect their performance on the pitch and harm the team in the next games.
And if some journalist finds out about some players from a team going to some show one night before the match at these times of covid-19 pandemic, we can find +EV in the bets of the offered odds in favour of that same team because the current rule states that the player should not leave his home in order to attend these and some other places… in case this rule is broken the player can be punished and defalcate the team in some games.
If we interpret this news better than the market by proposing in its pricing the real weight of the players we can yes explore a positive expected value for the team that is missing some players.
We can also get this news in advance to the market and explore a maladjustment in the odds before they are adjusted.
What is a Power Ranking?
A Power Ranking is nothing more than a list or better, a ranking table of the best and the worst teams in the championship according to our interpretation.
For example… we will start the Power Ranking of the Premier League and after evaluating the squad of each team… we will make a ranking from the 1st to the 20th according to our interpretation of the squads evaluation. (Taking into account all what was mentioned above in this article, key players and etc…)
I want to make it very clear that in this evaluation of the team’s technique I do not take into consideration the tactical power of the teams… I separate this variable in another classification in order to have a better interpretation of the information when distributing the weights of each variable at the time of pricing the match.
Another fundamental point is to update your power ranking table every round, because the performance of some of the teams can often surprise in a given championship and facing this performance it is necessary to update the ranking in order for the table to reflect what we are observing and interpreting on the field.
Let’s make it clear that we will also take into account the shape of the teams…. the shape, besides evaluating each sector in the field, will give us information to keep the classification update of the power ranking more adjusted.
If you do not know how to analyze the shape of the teams here is the link to consult my article about SHAPE and learn step by step how to evaluate this variable which is also very important for the pricing of an event.
WHAT IS A POWER RANKING FOR
To enhance the evaluation of the teams strength, and take that as a basis to start pricing a football game.
We can consider this classification in order to know if a certain match will be more even or if we will have a clear favorite for the game, and then, after knowing this scenario we can interpret and distribute the weight of the other variables with more quality.
It is also important to take as a parameter to find a light favorite for a match… a lot of the times we will not have teams with a clear favoritism… or a very even match, and now with our league table which we will work already defined and well elaborated with these adjustments… we can build a better average in the weights for the technical variable.
I tried to leave in this article a detailed step by step of all the factors that I take into consideration for the evaluation of this factor that is the technical variable.
In my opinion, this factor is one of the most important (the basis for everything else) for the pricing of a match because after a good interpretation of it, all the other variables become easier to distribute the weights… with this we elaborate a pricing of an event with more quality, as it is something interpretive.
There are many ways to evaluate the strength of a team, this is not an absolute truth,
you can easily use only statistical data in the power ranking or through Ratings to calculate the attack/defense strength of a team.
The model that I passed in this article, is the way I learned after many attempts, in order to be successful in sports betting. It is something that in my vision is fundamental to find mismatches in odds and to be able to work with positive expected value.