I have lost too much time around accumulators
In a certain way, that’s normal, due to the fact that these accumulators have a multiplying effect with every odd that we choose, which makes them very tempting.
However, I could never find anything special that convinced me into betting this way, since we all know that, despite their large odds, our winning chances decreases drastically.
Curiously, and like all things in life, I’ve found a situation where betting on an accumulator is better than betting on a single bet. I’ll show you how:
If i place a single bet on the home team, my chances of winning are 33.3%
33.3% chance of winning is low right?
No one ever said that punting is easy.
Now imagine that instead of a single bet, I make an accumulator with 2 events.
Only this time, my accumulator consists of 2 double chance bets (1X, 12 or X2) Let’s imagine that my accumulator had 2 selections, both of them 1X.
This time, my chances of winning are 44.4%. So, in this case, and considering purely mathematic odds, I am more likely to win a 2 match accumulator with double chances, than a single bet.
So what if I make a 3 event accumulator, and, just like the previous example, with only double chance selections?
Do my winning chances increase or decrease?
This time, the winning chance decreases to 29.6%, which means it’s harder than a single bet.
It is important that we are always on the lookout for the 2nd situation, the accumulator with 2 double chance selections, because we can get a better odd and higher chance of winning when compared to a single bet.
I tis all about analyzing the matches.
But aren’t double chances’ odds very low?
Well if we compare the odds of a double chance (1X, 12 or X2 / AH+0.5) with the odds of a single bet, they are much lower, since we are covering 2 out of the 3 possible outcomes.
But the important thing to retain, is that what is presented in this article is an accumulator made with 2 double chance bets, so the math is simple.
If the accumulator’s odds don’t please you, then just don’t bet, just like if you were dealing with a single bet.
If the accumulator’s odds please you, then go for it, because you can be sure that your winning chances are increased in 11.1% (44.4%-33.3%) when compared to a single bet.
I’m not familiar with your personal experience, but in my case, every time I make any change in my analysis criteria, I expect an improvement of at least 1%/2% on my performance.
However, what we are promoting here is an instant increase of 11.1%, which is, naturally, a huge swing and a huge possible advantage in punting terms.
Note: when I talk about an increase of 11.1% in your winning chance, I’m always considering that you maintain your match analysis criteria.
Now if you use different criteria to determine your single bets and your double chance accumulators, these 11.1% make no sense, because we are comparing two completely different things.