NAÚTICO: Even with some good results after the arrival of their new manager Roberto Fernandes…
Which saw them leave the last place of this competition, the team is still in a very tough situation.
They currently sit in 19th place with only 17 points gained, which leaves them 8 points behind the first team outside the relegation zone.
Roberto has announced that they will adopt a very offensive posture here, just like they did on their last 2 wins, and they will try to impose pace on the game since the 1st minute.
Roberto has two important reinforcements for this match: Midfielder Giovanni, who is in my opinion the best midfielder Náutico have,
and the experienced attacker and goal scorer William, who are available once again. However, defender Breno Calixto is still doubtful for the match.
BRASIL DE PELOTAS:
Clemer has been slowly putting his “stamp” on the team and knowing the players he has at his disposal, so he was able to get an important come-from-behind win at home on their last match, against Goiás.
With that result, they were able to get a breather in the league table, and they’ve jumped to 12th place, having now 30 points
and placing themselves on a comfortable mid-table position, 7 points away from the top 4 (G4) and 6 points ahead of the relegation zone (Z4).
Clemer has quite a problem on his defence, since Brasil’s defence is already questioned and the worst in the competition.
Besides that, they won’t have their best defender available for this match, because Leandro Camilo is out, as well as their attacking midfielder Rafinha, who is also an important absence.
Náutico stopped being the punching bag of this competition a few rounds ago. They are coming into this match after an expected defeat against Ceará by the minimum margin,
but they played well and they’ve been showing a different attitude on their matches. As for Brasil de Pelotas, they started losing to Goiás but with a good performance from Marcinho,
the team reacted and was able to turn it around and completing the comeback. Despite that good result on their last match, they are still very inconsistent in this competition.
They have the worst defence on the competition, conceding 34 goals so far, and they will face Náutico, which is the worst attack on this competition, with just 15 goals scored.
Náutico vs Brasil de Pelotas – Betting Tip and Prediction:
Analysing the league’s statistics, Brasil de Pelotas is one of the teams who has been involved in matches with Over 2.5 goals for example, but analysing match by match,
I see that it happens a lot more when the team plays away, and usually because they concede a lot, since they have conceded 3 or more goals several times.
However, Náutico is a very low-scoring team, even when they win, they normally win by a slim margin. Therefore, I can’t consider this a threat for the Under 2.5 goals bet.
A team that has the worst attack won’t be able to score a lot of goals and the “Over 2.5 Goals” has only happened a lot in Brasil’s matches because they usually face opponents that are able to score well against them, although that is not Náutico’s case.
To summarize, yes, Brasil have the worst defence and concede goals almost in every match, however Náutico have the worst attack,
and they usually settle for a 1-0 until the end of the match, so I strongly believe in the Under here.
Besides that, Brasil is also a very contained team, that usually only thinks about defending and only goes on the attack when they’re offered a lot of space.
I see value on this Under. I confess that it was tough making all this analysis and studying, but I found value and I will invest with a lower stake.
|Under 2.5 goals||