This week we are back to enjoy the biggest club competition in the world. The Champions League is barely over and has already had its restart, and in order to toast to this return, I bring you a bad example right in the first round.
CHOSEN BET AND PREVIOUS ANALYSIS OF THE MATCH
This time, I bring a different model of betting, in comparison to other articles. Now, I didn’t choose a single game, but instead combined two results.
ANALYSIS POINTS OF THE GAMES IN QUESTION
- Real Madrid and City were widely favorites in their matches (at least in theory).
- Real Madrid was coming from a defeat in the Spanish league to Cadiz, also playing at home. They came under some pressure, but they needed to show a better performance against an opponent who usually does not impose great difficulties against the biggest teams in the league.
- City were going through a better moment. They had defeated Arsenal for the Premier League, and were now facing Porto, who had a terrible performance in the previous season and were coming from some games without a win.
- Real Madrid had some absences, like Carvajal, Hazard and Sérgio Ramos. However, Shakhtar was simply coming with a whole team of absences, and totally discredited for the match.
- City had Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus absent, but the team was still extremely strong, with Sterling, Aguero and Mahrez in the offensive end.
- Both teams offensively strong, needing to win, against inferior opponents. It seemed to me that a double bet with the 2 wins would be an interesting option.
The initial analyses didn’t materialized in practice. In both games, the two teams felt immense difficulties against weaker opponents in theory.
Manchester City won their match by 3-1, however, this does not mean it was a good choice. They started losing the match, and after the first 45 minutes they had ridiculously shot only 3 times in the opponent’s goal.
Guardiola’s team proved to be pragmatic, not very vertical, and even though City had turned the match around, the odds chosen didn’t payed the risk, in my opinion.
The bet was lost precisely at Real Madrid, who were facing a team in tatters. Zidane’s team proved to be extremely disorganized, and were down 3-0 still in the first half.
In the second half they have dominated the game, managed to come close in the scoreboard with 2 goals scored, but didn’t have enough reaction power to fix the disaster of the first half.
The merengues had more ball possession and more goal attempts, but were terrible in terms of controlling the game without the ball, struggled to prevent transitions, and they certainly proved to be a bad choice.
CONCLUSION: ERRORS AND HITS IN THE BETTING CHOICE AND MATCHES ANALYSIS
Each bettor has his own methodology, and throughout the period that he remains active in this environment, he ends up having a taste for some types of bets. I have a methodology to adapt lines, and form some combined bets, mainly in the NBA.
In football, generally, I don’t like it, I prefer simple bets on bigger lines, because it requires a lower hit rate, and I believe it has a higher value than low odds for unstable markets.
My first conclusion is that I was wrong to go against something I believe in. The feeling of losing a bet doing what we usually don’t do, is worse than losing any other bet.
Bets combined with low odds must be made with extreme confidence. This was not the case.
I believed that due to the circumstances, the local factor, the teams’ line-ups, and the opponents’ conditions, either technical or situational (as in the case of the Ukrainians) that would make Real Madrid and Manchester City extremely favorites.
Even with the favoritism, the winning market is a dangerous one in football, and I didn’t have total confidence for that. After the loss, the reflection about a mistake, in my opinion, serious, took place.
Neither Real Madrid nor Manchester City were sovereign in their matches. Sometimes, losing a match, even when you perform well, is acceptable. In these cases, both were unbalanced, with a lack of tactical options and their coaches were unable to behave in front of reactive opponents.
LOSING IS NOT THE PROBLEM
Losing the bet is the least of the problems in this situation. I charge myself more for not identifying the dangers in this type of event, and still, invest in it.
At the end of this article, if I can give you an advice, that would be: avoid unstable market combinations, because in the long run, it usually turns out a negative option.
And one last tip: believe in your methodology, and invest in what you really believe in. To prevent this kind of feeling to appear after a loss.