I decided to share with you how I calculate my stake for a bet for a certain sports event.
By rule I’m approached, so I can explain to Inside Bet users, how I calculate my stakes.
Normally it comes always after a certain bet that we keep giving in our Podcast, that we emit every Tuesday and Friday at around 6 p.m.
We have various types of stake methods, the fixed, never exceeding 5% of the bank as a general rule and then linear. This one goes up according to the gains achieved. Until here it’s simple, but we are going to exemplify so that there is no doubt.
I determine that until the end of the month every bet that I make are 2 euros each. At the end of the month I can adjust this fixed bet or not.
Especially if we make good gains that month. If the month wasn’t pleasant for our pockets, I can readjust the bet value reducing it and exposing myself less in the next month.
Another example to take into account is that you can set for you that you are only going to bet 5 euros per day.
In short, everything that you “define” as stake and don’t change until verifying results, can be understood by fixed bet.
Here is a bit relative, but as example, let’s say that I start my first bet of the month with a stake of 2 euros.
The bets are going well and as my bank is growing I raise my stake, or vice-versa. Here we aren’t dependent of the end of the month, end of the week or even the end of the day.
Here we can add the confidence we have in each bet.
In short, we are always altering our stake as we are more or less confident in the bet that are going to do, or as our bank goes up or down in value.
So I decided to explain to you all how I do my calculation. I also inform that it is my calculation and it will never have to be your calculation.
As a rule I only bet on football, but for diverse times here and there I make a bet on other sports. Here also enters this addendum to my calculation to this type of concept.
So I’m going to explain my concept of stake calculation:
As it is a general rule, I never expose my bank too much and I align with the 5%, basic rule of any bettor.
I strongly advise you to use excel, it’s a great tool for the bettor and if you don’t know how to work with it, you should seriously think about that.
For the calculation I use the following values:
- Bankroll value
- Confidence (1 to 5)
- Number of bets won in a row (I explain next)
- And permillage (I explain next)
Image as Example:
Explaining of each one:
Bankroll value – Every time I do a bet I update the bank. If u just spent 2 euros on my bank, I rectify the value to enter in the formula. (I take 2 euros from the bank)
Confidence – Here enters my confidence in the bet I am going to do. Normally I use from 1 to 5.
As will be easy to understand, 1 when I have little confidence, and consider a long shot and 5 when I am convinced, what I call a Full Stake. When I follow other bettor in his idea/tip, I define for myself, confidence 2.
Number of won bets in a row: During a day or weeks of betting, we are going to have some winnings in a row and/or losses. So here the values are easy to introduce. If I have 3 wins in a row, the value is 3.
If in the following bet I make I had a loss before in the middle I withdraw it. I define this data as “Strake”. Imagine that bad luck knocked on the door and we have with 3 losses in row, then it’s easy, we go back and enter with the number 0 in this field.
Permillage: Let’s say that permillage is the said percentage of exposure to risk. The same saying that I only expose 5% of the bank, and I use the value of 95. I keep this field unchanged.
Now the formula:
BANK x Confidence / permillage + Strake = Value of the bet
Example for a 100 euros bank, with level 2 confidence and 2 won bets in a row.
100 x 2 / 95 + 2 = 4.10€
Here is the image of how the formula is in Excel that I created for me:
In short the bet value varies as the value of my bank goes up and down, the level of confidence and also the number consecutive winning bets.
This is the method I have, the only work I have is to have the banking data always updated and keep putting the consecutive wins and changing the confidence.
To try the method, I advise you to be careful as it is something that you aren’t used to and you shouldn’t forget to keep updating. Sometimes when we want to make a bet, out of home, without excel, we’d better be quiet, unless you have the file always available.
I hope this article has helped you and I will be available to clarify any question you want to put.