How should we bet on the return of the competitions?

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We are still anxiously waiting for the return of the world of sports, so that we can get back to work with sports betting. But will we have to use the same methods in our return to sports betting?

IN THE BEGINNING WE SHOULD SEE A DEREGULATED MARKET

First of all, the definition of “back to normal” is still very broad. What would be normal after a long period of inactivity? I don’t think things will be normal anytime soon, and this is a big problem for the resumption of sports betting.

When I speak about a deregulated market, I mean the beginning of many oscillations, both from the teams and the athletes, and in terms of the markets offered by the bookmakers themselves. It will not be abnormal to see the odds changing abruptly, and this will require great caution for those who work with oscillations in the odds, such as sports’ traders.

A long period of inactivity is horrible for any bettor, and since we still do not have a prediction for when sports will return, the practice time for a gradual return becomes increasingly scarce. News report that if the stoppage lasts for a considerable amount of time, a new “preseason” would be almost ruled out, and teams would have to train and recover athletes in the middle of competitions.

The odds must be quite treacherous during this period. We should probably see a lot of changes in teams’ formations, and reinforcements and last-minute absences will be a constant, while we should also see the favorites constantly turning into underdogs in a matter of minutes.

Upon this scenario, I think we should change our way of bankroll management. I understand those who are more aggressive, who are willing to risk a good percentage of their total bankroll on their in-depth studies, but this will not be the best time to exploit our analysis. We should reduce our units’ size a little bit, at least on the first bets, in order to understand our new reality, and create a new database.

WILL THE DATA GATHERED UNTIL MARCH BE USEFUL WHEN THE COMPETITIONS RETURN?

This is a recurring doubt, and it will really be where we will have more difficulties to adapt. The world was different until March, with the big leagues at their peak, teams and athletes at the peak of their physical and technical condition, whether it was in the European football leagues, in the NBA or on individual sports.

The imbalance between the best and the worst was established. The technical quality will still have an influence on this resumption, but everyone will return more balanced, I believe. So, a dangerous step to take in the second half of the season is to bet blindly on those favourites from before the break, with lines that are completely stretched.

As an example, we can talk about Liverpool, who will still be better than 90 per cent of the teams in the Premier League, but we can’t bet on the Reds imagining the same intensity and supremacy they had until a few weeks ago.

The experts predict that everything will come back a little less unbalanced. I believe in games of less speed, more difficulty for the best teams to open a wide advantage, and playing many units at high handicaps, will surely end up backfiring.

EACH TEAM WILL HAVE A DIFFERENT REALITY

I know it seems obvious, but not every team will employ their best athletes or a maximum intensity in every game. Speaking of football, you’ll have teams from Europe more concerned with the Champions League than their domestic leagues, so don’t be overconfident on those who aren’t interested in the competition you’re betting on.

In Brazil, clubs still want the conclusion of the state championships on the pitch. I have a theory that this is a plan to be able to conclude a “pre-season” with the competitions ongoing, before the decisive stages of the Copa Libertadores, Copa do Brasil and Campeonato Brasileiro arrive. So, be very careful when betting on the big clubs in the state championships, because I think they won’t put in a lot effort in these competitions.

The North American leagues will be different. The MLB and the NFL will have their start when things return to normal, and we will have plenty of time to study them throughout the season. The NBA will be back with about 20 games to go before the conclusion of the regular stage, before the decisive games in the playoffs.

Upon this scenario, many teams should opt to rotate their squad a lot, improving their conditioning for the playoffs. With that, we should keep an eye on the decisive games, and teams that will have a fight for the last spots and stay away from stretched lines for the favourites that are already confirmed in the next stage.

These are some basic tips for when we get our leagues back. We’ll have a lot of options to bet on, but a lot of deceptions on our way to the “pot of gold”.

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