Football is back and full of traps for bettors Prediction

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To the delight of fans and bettors who were waiting anxiously, football is back! Despite our joy, this restart has been showing a still grim path, full of traps for those who are willing to invest their money.

BUNDESLIGA: HOME ADVANTAGE MEANS NOTHING!

I recently wrote an article speaking about the possible changes that we would see on this restart of football competitions. At the time, it was still a mere presumption, but as matches began to be played, some expectations came true.

Football is back and full of traps for bettors

Bundesliga is one of the best leagues in the world, with high quality teams, very exciting matches and full of options for bettors. Since it was the first big league to return, the bookmakers opened a lot of betting options for it, since the competition would draw most of the betting volume.

The traditional markets are still the ones that concentrate most of the investments, and that made me analyse some trends on this return. So far, the money line market (victory of any team or draw) has been proving to be extremely dangerous.

The home advantage, so far, has been practically useless. On the condition of neutral ground, where neither side has its fans, the teams haven’t been able to showcase their superiority on their own stadiums.

Until the 3rd round after this return, we have had 27 matches played in total. Of those 27, only 5 teams were able to win playing at home, and they were: the super favourites, Dortmund and Bayern, and then Hertha, Hoffenheim and Dusseldorf. Besides that, I’ve been seeing that the teams don’t have enough strength to assert the position of super favourites that the odds suggest. The visitors have gotten 12 victories so far, besides a high number of draws, 10 up until this point.

FAVOURITISM AND HOME ADVANTAGE

That way, that favouritism, where we put a lot of emphasis on the home advantage, isn’t working well for the Bundesliga, and I believe it is a trend that will continue on the other leagues when they return. An oscillation from the teams, that I figured would happen, is happening in reality.

There are plenty of examples, such as RB Leipzig, who were fighting for the title and now, 3 rounds after the resumption, they are already at risk of missing out on the Champions League qualification. They’ve drawn twice at home, playing quiet football, not looking dominant at all, and on both cases, the odds for them to win were lower than 1.40 before the start of the match.

Another example is Bayer Leverkusen, that was also fighting for a Champions League spot, being one of the best teams in the league. They started off by beating Bremen away from home, with an outstanding 4-1. After that, they’ve faced Monchengladbach, a team that had a lot of quality, and they’ve also won by 3-1 away from home.

On the 3rd round already, when they could consolidate their position at the top, with solid football, they’ve lost at home by 4-1 to Wolfsburg, who went through some ups and downs during the entire competition. We still don’t have a pattern to determine favourites and the odds before the match have been almost a trap, at least on the market to pick a winner.

ALTERNATIVE MARKETS ARE A GOOD CHOICE

Bet365 has been offering a lot of alternative markets, with lines like cards, fouls, throw-ins, goal kicks, corners, shots on goal, players’ performances, and some others. That gives you a wide set of options and some of those odds are maladjusted and have a lot of value.

However, a lot of options can also mean risk, since the matches have been a bit weird so far. The best options have been live because it is easier to identify the course of the match. Good options on fouls and cards’ market has been a reality. I didn’t expect it, but the matches have been very intense, with more rough fouls from both sides, even without the natural pressure of a packed stadium.

Since matches have been more balanced, sometimes the lines for the visitors are severely underrated. Markets like the higher positive handicaps or goal lines for the underdogs, even during the match, are having a positive return so far. It is always good to remind that football changed during this period we are going through. The new rule of 5 substitutions changed some aspects of the match and it can become dangerous for bettors.

INDIVIDUAL LINES

Individual players’ lines can be risky because I’ve been noticing that some players are being rested, once the result is consolidated. The 2nd half in some matches is way more relaxed, because there are 10 substitutions possible in total, if we add both sides, and that has to be included in the analysis from now on.

Well, this is only an early analysis, and everything can change in the next couple of weeks, but I believe we are seeing a new pattern forming, at least for the restart of the main leagues. Bettors, you should keep an eye out for this, and be careful, because there are a lot of traps out there!

PREDICTION

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