Fluminense will host Vasco at the Maracanã for the first Rio de Janeiro’s classic in the 2nd half of this season.
A match that features two teams in completely different situations. Fluminense is rising again on the league, after a hard-earned win on their last match, and they are approaching the 6 top spots (G6) with a great chance to enter them if they win.
From the visitors’ side, the last matchday served as the last straw, so after a humiliating loss and getting dangerously close to the relegation zone (Z4), Vasco has fired their manager and are now looking to recover.
The favouritism is all on Fluminense’s side, but since this is a derby, a surprise can always happen, that’s why the odds are relatively high/good.
Fluminense: Probable line up: Júlio César; Lucas, Renato Chaves, Henrique and Léo; Orejuela, Marlon Freitas, Wendel and Gustavo Scarpa; Wellington Silva and Henrique Dourado.
After a great defensive performance and great spacing away from home against a superior opponent (Santos), Fluminense had one of their best exhibitions of the season when they faced Atlético-MG this past Monday.
Even having a young and inexperienced squad, the team was able to dominate the first half completely in offensive, compact and progressive fashion. They were only able to score once but that is because Atlético’s goalkeeper Victor had a really inspired performance too.
However, when he failed, Henrique Dourado was there to take advantage and secure the win with 2 goals.
Abel Braga seems to be confident in fielding the same starting line-up and I believe that we will not see many differences in the team against this theoretically (although that doesn’t mean much, as we’ve seen lately on this league) technically weaker opponent when compared to Atlético-MG.
Besides that, the team is starting to regroup again, especially with the return of Soronoza and other reinforcements that were unkown so far such as Romarinho and Richard, in this lean Fluminense roster.
I believe that is important so that we don’t have to see again what happened in the 2nd half of their last match, because when Valdivia joined, the match changed drastically and he gave speed to their opponents which almost resulted in a loss or draw.
This way, I see clear chances for the “Tricolor” to win, but they can’t commit the same mistakes we’ve seen before like against Corinthians where they conceded on a set piece due to a lack of focus of their defence, since that is the only way I see Vasco being able to come out on top.
Vasco: Probable line up: Martín, Gilberto, Breno, Anderson and Ramon; Jean, Wellington, Wagner, Nenê and Mateus; Rios.
Milton Mendes’ stay at Vasco has come to an end and now there are some doubts regarding how the team will behave without their former manager, which is still a mystery for now.
If on one hand it is public knowledge that the manager didn’t have a good relationship with some members of the roster, including former leaders like Nenê, it is also true that the team, until a few matchdays ago, was treated as a pleasant surprise when they were sitting in the middle of the league table.
Some were even saying that Mendes was operating a miracle with the lack of quality there was in that roster. But the past will not play in this match, and even without Zé Roberto still, it is hard to believe that Vasco will be able to rebuild and play in a completely different fashion from their last 5 matches, where they weren’t able to get a single win.
I believe that with the return of Nenê, the team will slightly deteriorate their attacking performance, since they will be replacing young Paulinho, who despite his inexperience would still be useful for the counter attacks, with a veteran without any pace or rhythm at this point.
Doing that will probably exclude the best way they had to counter Fluminense, which was the counter attacks. In a similar way, Wellington’s entrance to try and improve their contention ability won’t be enough to fix their defence, who conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches, especially against an attack on the rise like Fluminense’s.
Fluminense vs Vasco Betting Tip:
As I’ve said in the beginning, these are two teams in completely different situations on the league table and on their recent form. Fluminense has the advantage on both of those aspects, and will play at home.
I believe that the odds are reflecting the difficulty of the match because it is a derby and due to their last head-to-head result. However, the conditions now are totally different, and the chances for another heroic Vasco win are way lower now.
Besides that, Fluminense, when they faced off against teams that are below 12th place at home, was able to score twice every time, while Vasco, when playing away and facing a team from the top half of the table, has conceded twice every time, including on their derby against Botafogo.
With that said, I think this bet has a lot of value and I think I’ve justified it well, especially because of the good momentum that Fluminense’s attack is on, as we could see on their last match. I’m going with Fluminense to win and the Over 1.5 in the match.
|Fluminense and Over 1.5 match goals||