Factionalism and risk in sports betting Prediction

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Losing a bet is something natural, but emotional aspects make us lose a lot more than the acceptable limit. The famous factionalism is one of the worst enemies for a bankroll and you, reading this article, have probably gone through these situations.


Speaking about risk in sports betting is almost boring at this point. Hundreds of different reasons make us win or lose a certain bet and our ability to identify these mistakes is what will make us become profitable in the long term.

Factionalism and risk in sports betting

Sometimes, I get stuck thinking that it is much easier to lose a bet than winning one. The chances aren’t the same, the odds aren’t in our favour. If we analyse thoroughly, the bookmakers’ juice, the mis regulated odds, combined with a very high betting volume, all of that makes us lose money in the long term.

One of the biggest difficulties to overcome are our choices based on passion, which means, betting on our favourite team for example. Naturally, we have a very strong affective memory, which makes us choose teams that generally provide us with marking results, even if they aren’t as profitable in the long term.

Our bias towards our favourite clubs come into this emotional aspect, where we base our choices not on reasoned data, but on possibilities without a lot of solidity. Who never lost money betting on their favourite team?


I’m not trying to say I reinvented the wheel, because that question is very old, but I’m trying to say I did a lot and unfortunately, I lost a lot as well. The question goes further than pointing the finger and saying what’s wrong, since it’s more about finding a method of limiting this temptation of betting with emotion and not with reasoning.

You know that euphoric season and thought pattern: “well, today things will work out well”? That doesn’t allow us to think properly. I got tired of losing money betting on ridiculously low odds and my team not winning or trying to bet on a positive handicap when the trend suggests my team will lose.

Losing the match and losing money at the same time… Is there any feeling worse than that, when speaking about sports betting?! That ends up generating some dangerous reactions.

Trying to recover at any cost, to try and suppress the poor feeling of the loss. Losing the notion of how risky it is to increase our betting volume and the main consequence: that feeling of saying “fuck it”. In just a couple bets our bankroll will be destroyed and our conscience about the stupidity of what we just did will return after the damage is almost irreversible.


I spoke about the poor aspects of it, where they lose and we also lose our money, but on the other hand, we might also win on both sides, don’t you think? The main problem is not betting or not on those conditions, but how we do it and the emotional results attached to the matches.

This is a very personal aspect, because there are those people who are able to control a deception, but that doesn’t change the fact the wrong choice was based on affective memory. Personally, I stopped betting in my own club, precisely because I realized that I lost more with it than I what I won. But, as time went by, I kept seeing I was losing valuable opportunities, because I still followed the odds and made some projections of imaginary bets.

Then, my problem wasn’t betting on my favourite team but knowing how to separate what was a bet based on data and solid projections and what was an impulsive bet, based on chance.

The question was now controlling the impulsive feeling after a “double whammy”. But I kept realizing that if I was able to make a truly well-founded bet, after a loss, that impulsive feeling reduced, because I was conformed because I had made the right choice, independently of the result.

Until this day, I never bet against my own team, that’s a motto. And I’ve lost several opportunities of betting with value, but I decided to preserve my mental sanity. Dividing my will between my team and my money was unfortunately too much.


It’s a personal matter. We should be comfortable when we bet on something, and not being about to break down if things don’t work out too well. If I analyse, I identify that the probabilities and the value of the lines are against my team, I prefer to stay away and root for the unlikely event.

We must define priorities and mine is preserving my bankroll from any streak of emotional based bets. In the beginning it is not easy but over time, we learn how to deal with our passion.





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