The corners’ market has been a heavily discussed topic throughout the years and it continues to be heavily discussed, with several bettors trying to understand if it is a reliable market, since there is still a group of bettors that believes that the number of corners on an encounter is always related with luck and therefore, it becomes something unpredictable.
Definitive Guide for the corners’ market
However, several bettors have been countering this notion and we have seen throughout the years, on Insidebet, some bettors that are able to be profitable on this kind of market.
The objective of this guide is offering a set of rules that allows people to select and study matches, in a more in-depth way, in order to obtain profit on the corners’ market.
To understand the corners’ market, we have to start off from two key ideas. The first one is that there is a valid argument, from those that don’t like this kind of market.
Although I don’t agree that the number of corners in a match is exclusively related with luck, the truth is that a team doesn’t necessarily have to look to get corners. A match is won by the amount of goals scored, and corners aren’t an objective.
A corner is nothing more than an opportunity to create danger through a set piece. And these days, teams are becoming better and better prepared for this kind of plays.
They know how the opponents attack on those situations, and they try to be well prepared defensively, which means it isn’t a play that is continuously forced, since organized defences are expected.
The second idea comes from my own experience.
The normal scenario on an encounter is expecting 1 corner per 10 minutes. This idea is always present in my mind for all encounters, be it pre-live or live betting.
This idea helps determining what are a lot of corners or not on an encounter. Since a match normally has 90 minutes, the normal amount would be 9 corners.
That means the ideal is to look for lines at the 9.5 and try not to go much further than that.
On matches where a high number of corners is expected, the bookmakers offer higher lines, that lose value.
It is important to avoid betting on lines where high handicaps have to be fulfilled.
In this case, avoid matches where 2 corners are expected on each 15 minutes.
Going from these ideas, we have a clear notion of what can be expected in terms of the number of corners on an encounter, and what are the lines to look for and to avoid.
We are on a period of the season in the European leagues that is ideal to start applying this method.
I never utilize this method at an early stage of the season, because we still don’t have a lot of information, but after the first half of the season is concluded, we are able to obtain a lot of statistics from the teams that conquer and allow the most corners.
What is left for us to analyze is what makes certain teams conquer or allow more corners than others.
The first big mistake that I see for those that explore this market is looking for teams that are dominant.
The analysis starts from the idea that a team is so dominant over the other that they will be able to get corners.
It is a wrong idea.
For example, in Spain, Barcelona is the most dominant teams due to the football they play, but in terms of corners, they ate in 18th place with an average of 8.7 corners per encounter.
Barcelona conquers on average 4.8 corners per match and they only allow on average 3.9 corners per encounter.
The reasoning is easy to understand. The first rule of the corners’ market is avoiding at all cost teams that play with a playstyle that prioritizes ball possession.
On Barcelona’s case, we can even say that the team doesn’t have great aerial threats and they even take their corners short, but this trend is present on other teams with a similar playstyle.
Teams that play possession football play slower and being favourites on most of their encounter, they end up defending with the ball, making it move around and attacking without a lot of speed, even finishing safely, which means, they only shoot when they have a clear goalscoring chance, since they have indications to avoid losing the ball.
This playstyle not only makes the team conquer less corners, at the same time it gives less opportunities to the opponents to create offensive plays, reducing the number of corners.
Therefore, we should first look for teams that play in a quicker and more vertical way.
This kind of teams aren’t the dominant teams, normally being teams with lower technical quality.
That lack of technical quality means they are more practical, because they know that if they maintain possession during a long time, they are at risk of losing it without creating anything.
The team with the highest average of corners in Spain is Levante, with 11.55 corners per encounter. Osasuna, for example, is the 3rd team with the most corners conquered per match, on average, with 5.40 per encounter.
From this idea, we can add several key characteristics.
The ideal will be not looking for teams that play in a quicker fashion, but rather teams that explore the wings and that have a clear trend to finish their plays with crosses or that aren’t too shy to get a shot on.
The questions that come up are what makes a team become more effective when crossing?
And what makes it likely for a player to clear for a corner?
On the first case, we should look for teams with high strikers, who are strong physically and that are threats on the serial game, because the teams will always try to explore that virtue of the striker.
This year, Conte’s Inter is a clear example of that.
On a system of 2 forwards, that appear constantly on the box when the team has the ball under control, the team looks to make a lot of crosses, especially because one of their strikers is Lukaku, with 1.91m and 93 kg.
It is not a surprise to see that Inter is the 3rd team that conquers the most points on average in Italy with 6.45 corners per match.
Curiously, the 1st one is Roma, that counts with Dzeko who has 1.93m of height. Roma gets on average 7.40 corners in favour per match.
On the second question, there are 2 important conditions. The first one, understanding what kind of importance the encounter has.
If on one hand when analyzing the “Over/Under 2.5 Goals” market we understand that the less pressure there is on the players, the higher the probability of goals being scored is, it’s the exact opposite here.
When they are under more pressure, the probability of corners being taken also increases.
Under a lot of pressure, the defenders avoid making individual mistakes and therefore, they tend to clear the ball in any fashion more often.
Confident and comfortable defenders avoid clearing for corners a lot, preferring to clear to the sidelines.
This doesn’t have to do with pressure only.
It is important to look for teams with defenders of very poor quality, because these defenders don’t like to control the ball and go on the attack under opposing pressure, preferring to keep the ball away from the danger zone.
On this aspect, we have the example of Lecce in Italy, who currently sits in 17th place and that allows on average 7.55 corners per encounter.
There are also teams that feel comfortable when defending corners and that therefore have no problems in allowing corners. In England, Manchester United is a great example of that.
Since they have a group of physically strong players, it is a team with a clear trend to clear to corners.
However, that only happens when United plays in a more defensive fashion and on the counterattack, which means, when they are facing the best teams in the Premier League.
For example, on the last encounter against Liverpool, they’ve allowed 11 corners against Liverpool and curiously, they conceded the 1st goal from a corner at the 14th minute, which still didn’t shake the team’s confidence in defending those kinds of set pieces.
The only problem of this market can be the limits enforced by the bookmakers. But, according to logic and being coherent with the selection of matches, it is possible to secure profit.