Generally, one of the most basic details we all consult before betting on a football match are statistics.
That is the first relevant point we encounter when we analyse a match, but if stats don’t win matches, they also won’t help us winning in sports betting when used solely.
Statistics should be used as a support basis to your analysis that, along with other information, will be very important to determine if there is or isn’t value on the odds offered by the bookmakers.
Starting then with statistics
we can, by analysing these statistics, check the standings of the teams in question but not only that, because if we use them well, it can be very useful.
Teams’ performances when they play at home, with the support of their fans, or away from home is a really important factor to take into account, as well as their positive or negative result streaks, since they are an important indicator about the teams’ morale.
To have an increased perception about team value and the quality of their sectors (defence, midfield and attack) we can look at their goal records to help us understand if they are a team with good offensive ability (goals scored) or with great defensive cohesion (goals conceded).
As I’ve said, statistics are fallible and unreliable and they don’t solely win matches, so it isn’t enough to know if a team scores a lot of goals if their best strikers are unavailable for some reason.
Therefore, another aspect to consider when we analyse a match is trying to see which absences each team will have for the match.
Those absences may occur for several reasons, such as injuries, punishments, personal issues, coach preference, among others and our task here will have to be trying to understand how much those absences will affect the team’s performance.
That way, it will be nice to check the importance the missing players have in the squad, whether it is by checking their minutes played, or if their absences force the manager to make tactical adjustments.
If possible, when dealing with important players missing, we should also check the results the team had on that player’s previous absences, to check if his substitutes were on point or not. Finally, we should find out which player will replace the absent one and what are his skills to perform that role.
Another thing we should look at are the previous and the following matches of the teams we are analysing.
The teams might go into the match with few days to rest and after very demanding matches (for example matches that went to extra time) or they might have an important match on another competition a few days after the match we are analysing, so we shouldn’t neglect this aspect.
The results against teams with value similar to their opponents are also a good indicator about the teams’ abilities.
The Head-to-Head (H2H) between both teams should also be checked
because sometimes, when a time doesn’t win on a certain stadium/ground for a long time, some psychological barriers might be created, and that can be very important and have a negative impact on some teams’ performances.
Besides that, the H2H can give us some specific details about playing on a certain city or region regarding the meteorological conditions or the stadium size.
Not only information about the teams can impact their performances or exhibitions.
There are also some external aspects that can determine the players’ mindset or ability. I’m referring to administrative or board issues that can be related to elections or economic problems in the club.
Managers’ statements can also be very important because some coaches use press conferences to motivate and send a message to their players.
Knowing if the teams have already reached their objectives as well as investigating the weather and pitch conditions are other important factors.
I think that if we pay attention to all of this, our chances of success in sports betting would increase considerably.