Despair, abstinence, lack of matches. Are you experiencing that? Calm down, you are not alone. This June and July of 2019 was one of the worst periods for bettors. The main European leagues have stopped, the main South American leagues have stopped and now we have the start of the never-ending less important competitions of national teams, such as the Copa America, Gold Cup and some others that don’t have a lot of media coverage. This period brings some problems.
Betting Volume and Value on Sports Betting
Firstly, an abrupt drop on the amount of matches available to bet on.
If on a weekend of Brazilian Serie A or B, or Premier League, Liga NOS, La Liga, Bundesliga, etc. we have hundreds of matches at our disposal to bet on,
when this period of the year starts, the number of events available in terms of football drops abruptly.
Secondly, and most importantly, the leagues that stay active aren’t amongst the most popular and famous ones, which means there is less information at the disposal of the bettor on these other leagues. Therefore, we have less matches and matches with less information available.
Therefore, it is not rare to see the despair of the bettors with the return of the main football leagues in the world. Most of us don’t know how to deal with this period. Many in fact, take a break during these months, especially in Europe.
Thinking about this, which would be the most relevant question?
Is the problem of betting during this period on the reduction of the volume of matches or on the low amount of information regarding these matches?
On this scenario, the worst problem seems to be the number of matches at disposal, but in reality, it’s more about the quality of the information available than the real volume of matches available. Let’s think: Due to the theory of pure value, what are we looking for? Finding bets on the markets we find a bigger advantage in.
And what is that advantage? Finding value bets where we bet on with valuable odds over the bookmakers right?
To put it simply: what has that to do with the number of matches and odds available at the markets?
The thought process of most bettors is simple and mathematical, based on the principle of offer. The higher number of matches are available, the higher the likelihood of finding value lines and having an advantage over the bookmakers.
Therefore, on this period of holiday of European football, with national teams’ tournaments and without a lot of matches, the task of finding value bets would be much more complicated.
That’s because the universe of events available is much smaller
That way offering an inferior sampling of matches and making our lives more complicated and the life of the bookmakers much easier in order to set fair lines on the main markets.
Having a more diverse set of matches available, logically I have higher chances of finding something that pleases me, right? Not exactly.
The question is… is that always so linear? Everything comes down to volume? Then, if we had hundreds of matches, would it be easier to find value odds? No.
The principle of supply is flawed when it comes to sports betting. Especially because the perception of supply in our case is tied to our knowledge.
To make it even worse, in my opinion this might be a dangerous reductionism in this universe. In my opinion, the best tool in terms of finding value is specialization and information shortcuts, instead of volume of popular matches.
This perception that we just need to have a lot of matches available to find value is false.
We say no.
Who hasn’t already gone through the experience of going a full weekend (of 100+ matches) without betting, and then finding value in 2 out of 2 matches available during a weekday? Bettors have the bad habit of betting on popular competitions where there is a lot of information and without putting in a lot of effort.
People look onto the Premier League, La Liga, Champions League, Bundesliga and they think it is easier to find value there only because they have a bit more information about this type of leagues. In fact, that information is expendable.
The question is not that we aren’t having enough matches to find value (we have had Asian, North American, South American competitions, as well as some others).
In reality, we are unable to find value on the matches that are available now.
In fact, recently it has been much more complicated to find value on the big competitions since the bookmakers also have an informational advantage over us bettors on this kind of fight.
Or does someone believe that we have an advantage over the bookmakers in terms of information inside the Premier League?
Therefore, in my opinion, the value is not tied with the volume, but more with the expertise. When we think about the association “more volume, more value” we are creating an unreal link between these two aspects.
We only think that, just because a league is more popular, they have higher chances of offering value. But that is not true.
It’s just a shortcut
On this case, the volume doesn’t mean more chances of finding value when betting, but only a false sense of knowledge regarding the most popular leagues.
Without specialization, method and information, we may have a volume of 500 matches per weekend, but that won’t help us finding more value.
A second question that remains: have you really been finding value on the top leagues or just because they’re popular, you think you can find more value on them?
Wouldn’t it be better to specialize in leagues that truly offer value and profit within your method?
Believing that because you more or less know the teams of important leagues you have more knowledge about them to judge the values offered by the bookmakers is an illusion that many people are tricked with. Recognizing is very different from knowing.
Therefore, it is better to have a deep knowledge of 10 teams of an unknown league than barely knowing 60 teams from the top leagues in the world. The value is not on the volume, but yes on your specialization.
Some interesting aspects to keep in mind:
• Ordinary information regarding the top leagues isn’t qualified information to help us find value;
• Matches where we only have information of this kind are irrelevant;
• A high volume of this kind of matches isn’t an indicator of a higher chance to find value;
• Specializing is training yourself to find value;
• More volume of matches doesn’t mean higher chance of finding value, unless you are specialized in those leagues;